Reposted from Assaf by Assaf
Electric vehicles (EVs) suffer from extremely hostile media. When they get mainstream headlines, it's because a random bit of data has suddenly "proven" some preconceived anti-EV canard. Either that, or something about Tesla. Tesla's media prominence in itself reinforces one of those canards, of course.
Meanwhile, away from the headlines, a simple and growing reality has taken root:
Recently, in some 150,000+ American households, the main or only car has been a battery-electric (BEV) Nissan Leaf or an electric-with-gas-backup (EREV/PHEV) Chevy Volt, and on the whole these households are super happy about their choice.
Unlike Tesla's offerings (to be clear: I admire what that company has done), the Leaf and Volt have targeted the midrange market from the start. They are now cheaper than they originally were, and rather affordable.
How do I know about those 150,000 households? First, according to the meticulous bookkeeping by insideevs.com, some 87k Leafs and 81k Volts have been sold in the US to date. Accounting for some attrition (e.g., our first Leaf lease, a 2012, was apparently exported to Norway after we returned it) and some multi-EV households, one could safely assume about 150,000 households. And typically, when an EV enters a household it starts hauling the bulk of daily mileage.
[ There are tens of thousands of additional households with EVs other than the Leaf, the Volt or a Tesla. Just look up the insideevs.com link above, there are about a dozen other plug-in vehicles available nationwide, and a dozen more in limited distribution. ]
What about the happiness? According to Consumer Reports, both the Leaf and the Volt score well above average in consumer satisfaction - Volt at 85 and Leaf at 77, while 65-70 is considered an average score. It's not a perfect record, but for the speculative first-generation specimens of an alternative technology this is darn good.
[ btw, Leaf matches or beats Volt on every sub-score item, but gets hammered on "Style". And Tesla Model S consumer satisfaction, just like its new-car ratings, is through the roof ]
Ok.... drumroll to the latest news.
On Thursday, Nissan announced the specs on its 2016 Leaf, to be available at dealerships in a few weeks. For 2 of 3 Leaf trims,
EPA-rated average range has increased to 107 miles - up from 84 miles in 2013-2015, and 73 miles in 2011-2012. It is still Generation 1 of the Leaf, the same look (love it or hate it...). They just increased battery-pack capacity by 25% without changing its form. And the price remained essentially the same, with quick-charging (a must-have if you want to take your Leaf on a road trip) offered as standard on both trims.
It should be noted that the EPA test cycle is the most rigorous around, and its estimate does reflect a reliable year-round average range for the average driver. There's great news on the thorny issue of battery depletion too: the 2016 Leaf comes with guaranteed >70% capacity retention through 8 years or 100k miles (for 2011-2015 it was 5 years or 60k miles).
GM already announced the specs on its 2016, Generation 2 Volt a few months ago, with the first cars to be delivered this month in California. EPA-rated electric range jumped to 53 miles, from 38 miles in 2013-2015 and 35 miles in 2011-2012. 53 miles is more than double the average round-trip commute in most US metro areas (pdf).
Of course, unlike the Leaf, the Volt also sports a fully functional gas engine, whose energy efficiency has also improved from 37 MPG in Gen 1 to 42 MPG in Gen 2. They also added a 5th seat (which to be honest, is more suited for a child carseat than a grown person). And the Volt's price has actually come down.
This is huge. Leaving the customer-angle aside for a moment, it is huge news in the battle for EV viability between major EV makers and their adversaries, namely the fossil-fuel industry (and its useful idiots among rival automakers and the media). EV makers have been trying to use the first generation of this commercially risky technology, to 1. Grow an enthusiastic customer core, 2. Learn enough from this core's experience to reduce costs and rapidly improve the technology, in order to offer a solid mainstream-attractive product as soon as possible. All that, without bleeding too much money.
[ Another Tesla aside. Their strategy is different: start from top-notch tech at premium prices, and gradually pave the way to still-great tech at affordable prices. This path has proven harder for the enemy to break, but it is also slower. As far as I'm concerned, it's a win-win. We're fortunate to have makers work the EV route from different angles, not least of which is China's BYD churning out EV buses and taxis by the thousand. ]
The fossils and their allies, of course, have tried to stop EV makers at every step, by throwing wedges between EV makers, drivers, governments and the public, so that the EV makers give up and write off the whole adventure as a loss, just like GM did with E.V. 1 at the turn of the century.
Now this game is largely over. The 107-mile Leaf is close enough to the Holy Grail of EV technology: a BEV with a proven track record, from a leading automaker, whose range and quick-charge combination meet most people's needs at least 99 days out of 100. The increased battery warranty seals the deal.
We'd driven the 73-mile Leaf for 2 years, and now the 84-mile Leaf for 1+ years (both with quick-charge). First, on a day-to-day basis the 73 miles were plenty enough. Second, when going on day trips and road trips, the difference between 73 and 84 is substantial, especially in winter (the 84-mile version has better range stability thanks to more efficient AC/heating). Give us another 23 miles range, reportedly even better range stability, and still the same price point... wow.
What about the Volt? In what is the most infuriatingly kept secret, the amazing engineering quality of Gen 1 Volt has been left unsung. Have you heard that J.D. Power found the Volt to be #1 in the entire compact class for 3-year dependability? While Chevrolet in general sucks on this front? I wouldn't have heard about it too, if I wasn't regularly reading insideevs.com.
From what I can tell, the Volt is simply the best car called "Chevrolet" you can get right now. Unfortunately, prior to Mary Barra's arrival, GM top brass, marketing and dealers have failed the Volt. Now with even more irresistible specs on the Gen 2, and with top management fully pushing the Volt, we should see some major mainstream penetration.
By the way, if you can't or won't buy a new car, 2011-2013 Leafs now go for $9-13k, sometimes even less (the search in the link is limited to Leafs with <30k miles on them). If you currently use a gas/diesel car to commute, replacing it with a used Leaf - assuming it can handle your commute distance - quickly pays for itself in fuel and maintenance savings. I bumped into several recent buyers of such used Leafs, both in person and online; usually they are EV newbies, and they all seem ecstatic at the deal they've made. (used Volts seems to start at ~$13k)
And we ain't seen nothing yet. By mid-2017 at latest, both GM and Nissan will offer affordable BEVs with 150-200 miles range (the Gen 2 Leaf and the Chevy Bolt). 2-3 years later, Tesla will finally begin selling an affordable version of its 200+ mile BEV supercars to the masses. At that point, internal-combustion technology should become about as attractive and relevant as typewriters.
All this means that we now have another way to kick the oil economy when it's down. And if it tries to raise its head and jack gas prices up again, it will just send auto buyers running even faster to get into an EV.
I had ideas about putting details below the fold. But instead, let's open it up for Q&A with my 3 readers.
Happy Saturday!
-------------- Sat Noon PDT UPDATE: -------------------
[ mandatory "Wow the Wreck List"" blurb] Thanks! Next time you need to shop for a car, please do consider wrecking the ICE (internal-combustion-engine) and picking up something with a plug - new, used, whatever fits your needs and budget.
A couple of clarifications to confusion in some of the comments:
Quick Charge (QC) - this is not the 240v AC charger. The 240v AC is known as "standard" or "Level 2" charger.
Rather, QC or "Level 3" is DC at a higher voltage (typically 480v). Don't ask me how it works. But it's the EV analogue to a gas station (the other option is swapping the battery out... thus far, proven to be not very economical).
Filling up a Leaf from near-empty to ~90%, takes half an hour give or take a few minutes. On the road, it's great if you can combine that with a stop you need to make anyway. For example, driving to the Washington coast last month (140 miles), we used the Olympia Nissan QC in both directions. Going there we had lunch; going back we had coffee. In both cases charging ended before we finished our food/coffee business.
QC is also a viable workaround for people who want an EV but don't have access to an overnight outlet. If they have enough conveniently located Quick-Chargers around, they can weave a half-hour coffee and charging stop every few days into their routine, in lieu of overnight charging. The price of a QC session can be anywhere from free, to an outrageous ~$10. Some charging companies offer a monthly subscription.
If you want to snoop ahead, what type of QC infrastructure exists in your region (it varies greatly), look up plugshare.com (they also have an app, of course). QCs are shown in orange as "High Powered Stations"; uncheck all other chargers to make them more visible. Be sure to go into 'More Options', and uncheck all the Tesla QCs, because unless you can afford a Tesla they are irrelevant for you.
The Volt does not have a QC option; having a gas engine, it doesn't need one. Tesla Model S has its own (needless to say, superior) QC system called "Superchargers", open only to Tesla Model S (and future models). To add insult to injury, Tesla drivers can now buy an adapter they can use on Nissan-compatible QC stations :)
240v Level 2 chargers are the more common public chargers you see popping up. Many EV drivers install one in their home. The cost is a few hundred for the charger itself, plus a few hundred for the circuit (possibly more if you have a complicated set-up). Or you can parasite on an existing 240v circuit - your dryer, range, a kiln, etc. Just make sure you know what you're doing. There's going to be a lot of electricity flowing through there, it better be a solid circuit and outlet.
If you are not a heavy commuter doing >50 miles every single day, you don't have to install a Level 2. All EVs come with a free, 110v "Level 1" or "trickle" charger, that can juice you back at least 40-50 miles every night (depending also on how long your "night" is).
Capisci?
Gen 2 Volt's gas MPG - lots of angst over this. First, note this is only the MPG when running on gas. When running electric, the Gen 2 Volt's efficiency is rated by EPA at 106 MPGe, not too shabby.
Second, the whole point of the Volt, especially the Gen 2, is to do most of your driving, hopefully all of your day-to-day driving, electric. So whether the residual gas MPG is 40 or 50 or even the previous 37, is not a big deal IMHO.
That said, the comparison with the 2015 Prius' 50 MPG is unfair. In order to be electric, the Volt has to haul ~200kg of battery. So it's heavier. The correct analogy is to the Camry hybrid, or to the larger PriusV, whose 2015 efficiency is.... 42 MPG, just like the Gen 2 Volt :)
Happy Saturday afternoon!